Okay, I admit it - I've become a "tinfoil hat, the sky is falling, conspiracy theory, conservative hack". I stick to my God, my gun and my principles. The question however, is why am I like this, but why haven't you become more like me. You see, I am not a politician, so I do not say anything to win a vote and I do not see little green or gray men. When I make a statement, it is based on research and history. So, you wonder, why am I warning of the coming doom?
In January of this year, the President spoke to us about a booming economy. He said that while we had a way to go, we were in a period of solid recovery because of what he has done. Fortunately, he had statistics to back him up - retail sales had shot up by the highest percentage in several years. Some might say this increase was "puffed" for the benefit of the President's State of the Union Address.
Many people, some famous and some not so famous like myself, looked at these numbers and previous period numbers with a healthy level of scrutiny. Sure, spending is up and that is a good thing, but employment numbers remain seriously depressed, fuel prices are starting to inch up, tensions in the middle east are on the rise, beef and pork prices are escalating at a near alarming rate, health care services and coverage are soaring. Unfortunately, if you get your news from ABC, CBS, NBC or MSNBC; or CNN, you do not hear much about this - details are non-existent. These are statistics you must learn by doing research, by observing and by living.
How many people, for example, know that bird flu is killing millions of chickens and turkeys in the US? How many people know that turkey may be in very short supply and very expensive by Thanksgiving? How many people know that if you like chicken, you may want to consider stocking up?
We've heard the administration boast about how unemployment has fallen to a remarkable 5.4% in April, but...
How many people know that 190,00 off the 200,000 jobs created in April were part-time, no benefit positions?
How many people know that this is not news, but has been the trend throughout Obama's administration?
How many people know that as of today, over 93 million Americans are no longer in the workforce.
How many people know that 93 million eligible, but non-working, people represents over 30% of the eligible worker population in the US?
How many people have by now, calculated that, part-time and under-employed not withstanding, these figures result in an unemployment rate well above 30%?
How many people know that Obamacare, which has resulted in skyrocketing premiums for employer provided health insurance, will increase even more after employer mandates kick in?
How many people know that Obamacare has already resulted in costs far greater than we were told, big surprise, by our President?
How many people know that these incredibly high healthcare costs cannot be paid for by the unemployed?
How many people know that the healthcare costs of over 93 million people no longer in the workforce, will have to be covered by those who are in the workforce?
How many people know that the healthcare of the illegal immigrants, let in by Obama in an attempt to gain favor with the Hispanic community, will be covered by the American taxpayer, including those who immigrated legally?
How many people have calculated by now, that the number of people no longer in the workforce, 93 million, will grow at a rapidly increasing rate as employers are driven out of business by these skyrocketing healthcare rates?
Now, specific to the economy...
We've saw a jump in retail spending in the last few months of 2014 and in January of 2015, which Obama used to brag about his achievements in the State of the Union, but...
How many people know that retail spending usually increases during this time of year because of, I don't know...HOLIDAY spending???
The retail numbers however, dropped off in February, quite significantly, year over year. The administration told us it was because of cold weather and snow in the northeast. Apparently, if the people in the northeast cannot shop, neither can the people in our other 45 states...
How many people know that while the weather was harsh in the New England states for a two month period, it usually is cold and snowy in New England in the winter? Can you say "Nor-easter"?
How many people know that it was very snowy and bitterly cold from November 2014 through March 2015 in the Midwestern states and the northeast, yet retail sales for that period were not negatively affected to the level they were affected for a two month blast in a much smaller area this year?
How many people know that retail sales increase each year between February and May - because of income tax refunds.
How many people know that retail sales did not increase, but were anemic or dropped during the same period this year? Unless there is a huge bump in May sales, to be released around June 13, be afraid...
How many people know that industrial output has fallen for the past 5 months?
How many people know that this is a sign of the coming of a poor economy?
How many people know that manufacturing in the US took a hit in April after stalling in March?
How many people know that this is another sign of a doomed economy?
How many people will blame all of this on the Republican congress. Trust me, we are already hearing whispers of this from the left.
Earlier this week, the news reported that consumer confidence is up 111% since 2000. What this newscast did not tell me is that consumer confidence is down in May, by the greatest amount in 2 years - about 10%.
I have always said that a biased report can shape our economy. If enough people are told enough times that the economy is dead, they will start to believe it and will stop spending. When spending stops, the economy fails. This is what I believe happened to George H.W. Bush in 1990. If the media presents the information without bias, the market will drive the appropriate results.
Today, we have seen the opposite - the mainstream media telling us over and over, how well the economy has recovered. We hear the President telling us how we are practically re-living the great times of the 80's and 90's. All of this upbeat hype has helped to buoy the economy, but lies can only cover so much. You can tell people they have money and they can believe you, but eventually when they reach in their pocket, they will find only lint...and lint has no value.
People are starting to find lint. People are starting to realize that maybe the economy is not booming. Maybe it is not all Sunshine, butterflies, rainbows and lollipops. Maybe, just maybe, the reason we are hearing one thing, but seeing something completely different is because we are being lied to. Or maybe the days to come will be so bad that we will look back on today as the days of Sunshine, butterflies, rainbows and lollipops. As for me, I am trading in my tinfoil hat for a hard hat because it is going to be a bumpy ride.
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